Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 35 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Aho 51.3% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 60-35 in 95 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 70.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 67.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 75.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Tavares
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
60
-
35
(95 meetings)
60
35
Tavares
Aho
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
16
9
Tavares
Aho
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
22
13
Tavares
Aho
35 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
22
13
Tavares
Aho
35 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
50.2% (6,646)
+3.8%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
58.9% (1,310)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
46.5% (465)
+4.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Tavares
Aho
Home
56.1% (10,525)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Tavares
Aho
P1
55.0%
51.1%
P2
54.1%
52.1%
P3
54.0%
50.8%
OT
55.9%
48.9%
Final 5 min
54.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:06 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |