Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Aho 53.8% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 84.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 80.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 81.1%
81.1%
18.9%
Tavares
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Tavares
Aho
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
51.2% (785)
+8.0%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
63.8% (213)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
57.9% (57)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Tavares
Aho
Home
57.5% (668)
54.9% (548)
Away
61.1% (684)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Tavares
Aho
P1
58.0%
52.8%
P2
60.1%
58.9%
P3
61.0%
50.6%
OT
27.8%
60.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
59.3%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 19:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 14:33 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 02:56 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 13:27 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 06:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 03:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 15:53 | Defensive | John Tavares |