Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Thompson 44.0% (+16.0%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 96.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 75.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 91.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 89.1%
89.1%
10.9%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Tavares
Thompson
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
0
Tavares
Thompson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Tavares
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
44.6% (709)
+14.6%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
41.5% (53)
+18.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
35.1% (97)
+7.8%
On power play, Tavares has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
57.5% (668)
45.5% (426)
Away
61.1% (684)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
58.0%
48.5%
P2
60.1%
43.8%
P3
61.0%
38.1%
OT
27.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
59.3%
Thompson
34.0%▼
41.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 03:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 1 | 03:58 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 09:33 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 03:49 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |