Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Thompson 45.2% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 88.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 78.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 87.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Tavares
Thompson
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
0
Tavares
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
3
Tavares
Thompson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
44.6% (661)
+13.1%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
48.4% (95)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
33.3% (33)
+18.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
57.4% (636)
45.7% (411)
Away
57.2% (612)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
57.5%
47.7%
P2
56.9%
45.7%
P3
57.5%
40.5%
OT
57.1%
42.9%
Final 5 min
56.9%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | OT | 01:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 19:49 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |