Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Thompson 42.8% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 31-17 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 98.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 83.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 95.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 92.1%
92.1%
7.9%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
17
(48 meetings)
31
17
Tavares
Thompson
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
12
1
Tavares
Thompson
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
11
5
Tavares
Thompson
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
8
11
Tavares
Thompson
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
42.9% (3,540)
+11.1%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
46.9% (373)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
33.6% (265)
+16.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
56.1% (10,525)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
55.0%
44.4%
P2
54.1%
43.7%
P3
54.0%
40.0%
OT
55.9%
36.4%
Final 5 min
54.7%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | OT | 01:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 19:49 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 05:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 02:47 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |