Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Thompson 42.9% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 24-14 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 97.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 80.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 94.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 91.2%
91.2%
8.8%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
14
(38 meetings)
24
14
Tavares
Thompson
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
11
1
Tavares
Thompson
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
5
Tavares
Thompson
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
6
8
Tavares
Thompson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (15,885)
43.0% (3,363)
+11.0%
Power Play
56.5% (4,221)
46.9% (369)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (612)
33.3% (252)
+17.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Tavares is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (7,429).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,874).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
56.1% (10,389)
45.1% (2,037)
Away
52.7% (10,358)
40.2% (1,947)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
55.1%
44.7%
P2
54.1%
43.5%
P3
54.0%
40.3%
OT
56.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
54.7%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
Thompson
34.0%▼
41.5%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 05:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 02:47 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 03:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 1 | 03:58 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 09:33 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 03:49 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |