Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +15.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Thompson 43.7% (+15.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 63.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 71.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 65.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 66.6%
66.6%
33.4%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Tavares
Thompson
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
5
Tavares
Thompson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
41.9% (597)
+15.8%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
50.5% (95)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
25.0% (12)
+31.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
59.7% (610)
47.1% (367)
Away
57.0% (698)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
57.2%
44.2%
P2
58.5%
41.6%
P3
59.4%
42.9%
OT
46.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.3%
Thompson
34.0%▼
41.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 05:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 02:47 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |