Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Gourde 49.5% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 95.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 76.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 89.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 94.3%
94.3%
5.7%
Tavares
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Tavares
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
49.1% (731)
+11.8%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
54.3% (81)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
48.2% (85)
-0.6%
On even strength, Tavares has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Gourde is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (556).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gourde
Home
63.5% (684)
50.9% (479)
Away
57.6% (658)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Tavares
Gourde
P1
60.3%
51.2%
P2
60.4%
49.8%
P3
60.1%
47.5%
OT
92.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.6%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 09:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |