Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Gourde 49.7% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.3%
Defensive zone
Gourde 51.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 62.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Tavares
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tavares
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Tavares
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
51.2% (469)
+6.5%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
42.9% (21)
+17.6%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
37.5% (48)
+18.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gourde
Home
59.7% (610)
47.8% (301)
Away
57.0% (698)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Tavares
Gourde
P1
57.2%
47.3%
P2
58.5%
53.4%
P3
59.4%
48.6%
OT
46.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
58.3%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2024 | 3 | 06:26 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |