Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Gourde 48.2% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 21-8 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 97.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 80.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 89.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 89.8%
89.8%
10.2%
Tavares
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
8
(29 meetings)
21
8
Tavares
Gourde
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
1
Tavares
Gourde
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
3
5
Tavares
Gourde
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
2
Tavares
Gourde
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
48.4% (4,987)
+5.6%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
57.4% (376)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
40.0% (555)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,967).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gourde
Home
56.1% (10,525)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Tavares
Gourde
P1
55.0%
49.8%
P2
54.1%
47.5%
P3
54.0%
47.5%
OT
55.9%
37.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:58 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:37 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 3 | 06:26 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:59 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:44 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 12:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 09:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |