Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Gourde 46.0% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 95.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 69.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 88.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 87.4%
87.4%
12.6%
Tavares
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Gourde
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Tavares
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
47.2% (687)
+10.5%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
45.0% (20)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
33.0% (88)
+19.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gourde
Home
57.4% (636)
44.4% (356)
Away
57.2% (612)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Tavares
Gourde
P1
57.5%
42.2%
P2
56.9%
50.0%
P3
57.5%
44.5%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:58 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:37 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |