Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Staal wins 59.9% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Lafferty 43.9% (+16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 69.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 62.6%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 53.4%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Staal
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Staal
Lafferty
Last 5: Staal 2-3 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Lafferty
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
2
Staal
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Lafferty
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
42.6% (324)
+16.3%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
31.3% (16)
+37.1%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
43.8% (16)
+8.0%
On power play, Staal has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Staal is 59.9% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Staal shoots left. Lafferty is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Staal
Lafferty
Home
57.0% (646)
40.9% (181)
Away
59.1% (729)
43.4% (175)
By Period
Staal
Lafferty
P1
55.9%
42.2%
P2
55.4%
36.4%
P3
62.0%
48.6%
Final 5 min
63.1%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
58.1%
Lafferty
50.0%▬
50.5%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 16:17 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 09:36 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 06:32 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |