Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Lafferty 47.5% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Lafferty leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 60.1%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 64.3%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 56.7%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Staal
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Staal
Lafferty
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
2
Staal
Lafferty
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
2
Staal
Lafferty
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
6
4
Staal
Lafferty
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
47.9% (1,417)
+8.0%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
45.7% (46)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
43.5% (184)
+4.4%
On power play, Staal has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,583).
Staal shoots left. Lafferty is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Staal
Lafferty
Home
56.4% (9,699)
47.3% (833)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
47.4% (814)
By Period
Staal
Lafferty
P1
55.2%
49.4%
P2
55.9%
43.1%
P3
54.8%
49.6%
OT
56.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Lafferty
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:43 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 16:17 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 09:36 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 06:32 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 02:54 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 00:07 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 16:59 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |