Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 53.3% vs Kastelic 55.9% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 78.2%
Defensive zone
Eller 61.4%
Neutral zone
Eller 69.2%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
Eller
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Eller
Kastelic
Last 8: Eller 2-6 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
Kastelic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
4
Eller
Kastelic
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (865)
58.0% (476)
-4.2%
Power Play
57.1% (21)
75.0% (8)
-17.9%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (137)
50.9% (106)
+1.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Eller is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Eller shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Eller
Kastelic
Home
56.4% (486)
64.9% (265)
Away
51.2% (537)
50.5% (325)
By Period
Eller
Kastelic
P1
55.1%
58.5%
P2
55.3%
55.6%
P3
51.7%
56.8%
Final 5 min
51.0%
62.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
53.7%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 16:13 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 01:35 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 02:08 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:52 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 03:01 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 01:54 | Neutral | Lars Eller |