Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Eller wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs Kastelic 58.1% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 83.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 64.5%
Neutral zone
Eller 67.8%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Eller
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Eller
Kastelic
Last 10: Eller 3-7 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Eller
Kastelic
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
2
Eller
Kastelic
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
3
Eller
Kastelic
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
60.8% (362)
-4.8%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
83.3% (6)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
56.2% (146)
-4.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Eller is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Eller shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Home / Away
Eller
Kastelic
Home
52.6% (215)
60.3% (242)
Away
58.3% (307)
59.2% (272)
By Period
Eller
Kastelic
P1
54.1%
58.9%
P2
57.6%
57.3%
P3
56.2%
64.0%
Final 5 min
60.0%
66.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:03 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:28 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 15:41 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:28 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:22 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:29 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Lars Eller |