Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Eller wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 55.6%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 58.0%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 55.8%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Eller
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Eller
Zibanejad
Last 6: Eller 1-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
5
Eller
Zibanejad
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Zibanejad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
53.3% (807)
+2.7%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
47.6% (42)
+30.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
46.3% (147)
+5.6%
On power play, Eller has a +30.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Eller is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Eller shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Home / Away
Eller
Zibanejad
Home
52.6% (215)
49.8% (466)
Away
58.3% (307)
54.0% (530)
By Period
Eller
Zibanejad
P1
54.1%
52.9%
P2
57.6%
51.2%
P3
56.2%
51.7%
Final 5 min
60.0%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 18:34 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 06:48 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |