Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 39.3% vs Backlund 50.8% (-15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 83.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 63.8%
Neutral zone
Barzal 63.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Barzal
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Barzal
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Barzal
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
35.0% (283)
51.9% (1,083)
-16.9%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
51.7% (120)
+3.9%
On even strength, Backlund has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Barzal is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Barzal shoots right. Backlund is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Barzal
Backlund
Home
37.0% (138)
51.9% (673)
Away
34.4% (154)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Barzal
Backlund
P1
29.5%
51.4%
P2
44.5%
50.5%
P3
31.8%
51.4%
OT
0.0%
35.0%
Final 5 min
39.1%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
35.6%
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 09:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 10:58 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |