Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 46.3% vs Backlund 50.3% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 70.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 80.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Barzal
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Barzal
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Backlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Barzal
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (114)
51.0% (1,205)
-8.0%
On even strength, Backlund has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Barzal is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (98).
Barzal shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Barzal
Backlund
Home
35.8% (53)
51.2% (782)
Away
49.2% (61)
49.4% (765)
By Period
Barzal
Backlund
P1
44.2%
51.5%
P2
38.5%
49.8%
P3
46.9%
49.9%
Final 5 min
38.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
43.0%
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 05:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |