Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Barzal wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.9% vs Backlund 49.8% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 70.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 86.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 67.2%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Barzal
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Barzal
Backlund
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
5
1
Barzal
Backlund
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Barzal
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (469)
50.5% (944)
-9.6%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
51.5% (66)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
47.1% (297)
-18.5%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Barzal shoots right. Backlund is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Home / Away
Barzal
Backlund
Home
39.2% (250)
48.1% (636)
Away
41.3% (264)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Barzal
Backlund
P1
46.3%
45.4%
P2
36.7%
54.1%
P3
38.5%
49.2%
OT
0.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
41.1%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:20 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 18:26 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 12:21 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:11 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 16:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |