Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Barzal wins 38.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Backlund 50.5% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 66.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 85.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 66.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Barzal
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Barzal
Backlund
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
5
1
Barzal
Backlund
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Barzal
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (456)
51.3% (712)
-10.9%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
52.9% (51)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
47.5% (217)
-18.9%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Barzal is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (389).
Barzal shoots right. Backlund is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (276).
Home / Away
Barzal
Backlund
Home
38.0% (242)
49.0% (449)
Away
41.3% (259)
51.8% (531)
By Period
Barzal
Backlund
P1
46.6%
46.9%
P2
35.4%
54.7%
P3
38.0%
49.4%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:20 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:30 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 18:26 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 12:21 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:11 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 16:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |