Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Barzal wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 46.9% vs Frost 48.7% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 60.7%
Defensive zone
Frost 65.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 65.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Barzal
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Barzal
Frost
Last 6: Barzal 4-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
3
2
Barzal
Frost
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (483)
47.4% (426)
-0.8%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
63.9% (36)
-23.0%
On power play, Frost has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Barzal shoots right. Frost is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Barzal
Frost
Home
49.6% (242)
51.1% (221)
Away
43.3% (263)
45.9% (246)
By Period
Barzal
Frost
P1
42.4%
47.5%
P2
49.5%
52.3%
P3
47.7%
44.7%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
40.2%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
46.3%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 08:22 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 2 | 01:39 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 02:37 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |