Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Frost 50.6% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 53.5%
Defensive zone
Barzal 61.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 52.1%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Barzal
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Barzal
Frost
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Barzal
Frost
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
Barzal
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,571)
49.7% (3,652)
-7.8%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
55.4% (632)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
55.0% (40)
-12.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Barzal is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,704).
Barzal shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,481).
Home / Away
Barzal
Frost
Home
43.2% (1,901)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Barzal
Frost
P1
40.6%
51.2%
P2
44.6%
51.3%
P3
41.1%
48.8%
OT
27.6%
64.9%
Final 5 min
40.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:16 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 09:37 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 14:06 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 08:22 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 2 | 01:39 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 02:37 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |