Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Janmark wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Janmark 40.1% vs Hertl 54.1% (-14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Janmark 79.9%
Defensive zone
Janmark 79.4%
Neutral zone
Janmark 80.1%
Result
Mattias Janmark favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Janmark
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Janmark
Hertl
Last 5: Janmark 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Janmark
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Janmark
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Janmark
1
0
Janmark
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Janmark
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
39.7% (907)
53.6% (8,077)
-13.9%
Power Play
32.5% (40)
59.7% (1,916)
-27.2%
Penalty Kill
36.1% (72)
46.0% (793)
-9.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Janmark is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Janmark shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,755).
Home / Away
Janmark
Hertl
Home
39.3% (463)
55.6% (5,217)
Away
39.0% (556)
52.7% (5,569)
By Period
Janmark
Hertl
P1
41.2%
53.6%
P2
35.7%
53.9%
P3
41.3%
55.1%
OT
37.5%
46.8%
Final 5 min
40.2%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Janmark
34.0%▼
39.0%
39.2%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 02:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 13:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Mattias Janmark |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |