Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 82.2%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 58.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 59.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 72.1%
27.9%
72.1%
Zibanejad
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Zibanejad
Stamkos
Last 9: Zibanejad 5-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
2
Zibanejad
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Zibanejad
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (807)
57.1% (368)
-3.8%
Power Play
47.6% (42)
55.2% (96)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (147)
50.0% (10)
-3.7%
On power play, Stamkos has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Zibanejad shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Stamkos
Home
49.8% (466)
53.9% (230)
Away
54.0% (530)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Zibanejad
Stamkos
P1
52.9%
56.7%
P2
51.2%
54.1%
P3
51.7%
59.2%
OT
60.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.0%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 11:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 10:54 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:41 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 12:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |