Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Geekie wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 44.9% vs Paul 53.9% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 59.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 50.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Geekie
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Geekie
Paul
Last 6: Geekie 3-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
2
0
Geekie
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Geekie
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Geekie
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (584)
53.1% (710)
-9.4%
Power Play
47.1% (68)
57.3% (199)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
58.0% (69)
-8.0%
On power play, Paul has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Geekie is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Geekie shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Geekie
Paul
Home
45.3% (329)
56.0% (466)
Away
42.9% (331)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Geekie
Paul
P1
41.2%
57.2%
P2
45.0%
54.9%
P3
46.2%
51.5%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
42.0%▼
44.5%
44.1%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |