Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Geekie on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Geekie wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 48.4% vs Paul 52.1% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Geekie 66.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 55.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.8%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Geekie
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Geekie
Paul
Last 10: Geekie 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
6
2
Geekie
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Geekie
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Geekie
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (2,289)
52.5% (3,746)
-3.8%
Power Play
45.9% (183)
56.1% (469)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (129)
46.8% (571)
-1.1%
On power play, Paul has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Geekie is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,909).
Geekie shoots right. Paul is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (1,770).
Home / Away
Geekie
Paul
Home
50.0% (1,277)
52.6% (2,384)
Away
46.8% (1,324)
51.7% (2,403)
By Period
Geekie
Paul
P1
48.4%
53.8%
P2
48.9%
51.1%
P3
47.5%
51.9%
OT
66.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
42.0%▼
44.5%
48.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 02:22 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 06:00 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |