Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan O'Reilly
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 59.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 67.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 64.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
15
(27 meetings)
12
15
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
4
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
2
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
9
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
55.0% (1,084)
-9.5%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
56.8% (303)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
40.3% (149)
-0.3%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Home
47.8% (670)
54.8% (759)
Away
44.6% (644)
53.0% (777)
By Period
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
P1
45.3%
55.3%
P2
48.5%
51.9%
P3
45.0%
54.2%
OT
33.3%
64.7%
Final 5 min
47.4%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.2%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 15:23 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 06:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 03:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 03:38 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 13:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 08:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 05:25 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 02:39 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 05:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 09:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 06:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 03:16 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |