Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 26-17 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 67.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 65.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 66.7%
66.7%
33.3%
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
26
(43 meetings)
17
26
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Last 10: MacKinnon 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
9
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
8
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
55.7% (856)
-6.0%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
57.5% (233)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.0% (144)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Home
53.1% (618)
55.5% (616)
Away
49.1% (609)
55.3% (617)
By Period
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
P1
49.3%
58.1%
P2
53.0%
54.9%
P3
50.7%
53.9%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 03:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:01 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |