Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 135 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 170-122 in 292 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 77.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 90.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 90.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
122
-
170
(292 meetings)
122
170
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Last 10: MacKinnon 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
39
48
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
87 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
26
44
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
70 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
57
78
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
135 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
56.2% (15,290)
-10.1%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
58.7% (3,457)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
51.4% (2,826)
-8.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,705).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Home
49.7% (6,471)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
P1
47.4%
55.6%
P2
46.6%
57.0%
P3
46.1%
55.0%
OT
48.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
49.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 03:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:01 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |