Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan O'Reilly
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 28-25 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 51.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 52.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
28
(53 meetings)
25
28
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
9
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
8
8
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
14
11
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
56.2% (983)
-7.0%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
55.5% (254)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
52.0% (102)
-2.9%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Home
50.9% (740)
56.2% (697)
Away
49.0% (774)
55.1% (642)
By Period
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
P1
50.9%
54.5%
P2
51.8%
55.5%
P3
47.1%
57.1%
OT
58.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.9%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:23 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:11 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:42 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:59 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 08:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 03:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 09:05 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |