Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on defensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings). Kadri wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 48.6% vs Aho 51.3% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Kadri leads 25-23 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 62.2%
Defensive zone
Aho 51.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 51.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Kadri
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
23
(48 meetings)
25
23
Kadri
Aho
Last 10: Kadri 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Kadri
Aho
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
5
4
Kadri
Aho
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
14
13
Kadri
Aho
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (12,555)
50.2% (6,646)
-2.1%
Power Play
53.0% (1,892)
58.9% (1,310)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (293)
46.5% (465)
-5.5%
On power play, Aho has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kadri is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,402).
Kadri shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Kadri
Aho
Home
49.1% (7,493)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
48.1% (7,250)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Kadri
Aho
P1
49.1%
51.1%
P2
48.7%
52.1%
P3
47.9%
50.8%
OT
49.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
48.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
32.0%▼
35.5%
48.6%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:16 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:51 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 05:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 18:39 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 19:34 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 19:16 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 10:10 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |