Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Geekie on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Geekie wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 47.3% vs Paul 50.0% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 72.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 72.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 52.1%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Geekie
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Geekie
Paul
Last 6: Geekie 3-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
2
1
Geekie
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Geekie
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (352)
48.8% (666)
-3.1%
Power Play
63.2% (19)
53.8% (65)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
60.0% (55)
-26.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Geekie is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (307).
Geekie shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Geekie
Paul
Home
48.5% (165)
49.7% (348)
Away
45.0% (209)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Geekie
Paul
P1
48.5%
51.0%
P2
45.1%
47.4%
P3
45.8%
51.5%
Final 5 min
47.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
42.0%▼
44.5%
46.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |