Scouting Report
Jake Guentzel holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.9% vs Cates 45.1% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 84.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 82.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 54.6%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Guentzel
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Guentzel
Cates
Last 8: Guentzel 6-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
6
0
Guentzel
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Guentzel
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (256)
46.7% (912)
-0.6%
Power Play
47.5% (122)
33.9% (56)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
35.0% (137)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Guentzel is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Guentzel shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Cates
Home
49.3% (201)
46.1% (521)
Away
42.6% (183)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Guentzel
Cates
P1
49.6%
48.0%
P2
45.6%
42.3%
P3
41.6%
44.3%
OT
100.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
44.7%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
46.0%▼
48.0%
46.1%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 15:56 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |