Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Sundqvist shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Sundqvist 46.1% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 91.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 81.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 86.3%
86.3%
13.7%
Nelson
Sundqvist
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Nelson
Sundqvist
Last 5: Nelson 5-0 Sundqvist
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Sundqvist
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Sundqvist
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Sundqvist
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sundqvist
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
45.0% (500)
+6.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
54.5% (22)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
46.0% (50)
+5.9%
On even strength, Nelson has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sundqvist shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Sundqvist is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (425).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sundqvist
Home
52.5% (590)
45.5% (255)
Away
51.7% (619)
45.4% (317)
By Period
Nelson
Sundqvist
P1
50.5%
40.9%
P2
54.4%
46.9%
P3
51.4%
48.4%
OT
47.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:24 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |