Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tommy Novak
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 48.3% vs Novak 43.5% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 50.5%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 82.8%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 67.1%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Last 6: Nugent-Hopkins 4-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
4
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (408)
40.7% (460)
+10.3%
Power Play
0.0% (6)
61.5% (39)
-61.5%
Penalty Kill
35.9% (78)
0.0% (1)
+35.9%
On power play, Novak has a +61.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (339).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Home
50.8% (258)
47.0% (236)
Away
44.9% (234)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
P1
51.6%
43.1%
P2
45.2%
43.1%
P3
47.6%
40.1%
Final 5 min
47.4%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
48.0%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 02:47 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 19:05 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:23 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |