Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tommy Novak
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Nugent-Hopkins wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 47.7% vs Novak 44.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 59.5%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 73.8%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 58.3%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 73.8%
73.8%
26.2%
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (189)
41.7% (206)
+5.9%
Power Play
100.0% (2)
52.6% (19)
+47.4%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +47.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (132).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Novak is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Home
48.5% (132)
44.9% (118)
Away
43.4% (76)
40.2% (107)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
P1
51.4%
41.5%
P2
41.3%
44.0%
P3
48.5%
42.0%
Final 5 min
44.1%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
46.6%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |