Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tommy Novak
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% vs Novak 42.5% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 50.2%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 70.1%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 67.2%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (250)
40.4% (408)
+5.6%
Power Play
70.6% (17)
45.5% (33)
+25.1%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +25.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Home
50.3% (175)
42.0% (212)
Away
40.4% (114)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
P1
48.5%
41.9%
P2
45.9%
39.3%
P3
46.5%
42.1%
OT
0.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
41.7%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |