Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Monahan wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.5% vs Novak 42.5% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 53.5%
Defensive zone
Monahan 79.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 74.3%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 79.0%
79.0%
21.0%
Monahan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Monahan
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (874)
40.4% (408)
+12.6%
Power Play
54.7% (161)
45.5% (33)
+9.2%
On even strength, Monahan has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Monahan shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Monahan
Novak
Home
53.8% (558)
42.0% (212)
Away
51.7% (578)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Monahan
Novak
P1
49.5%
41.9%
P2
54.8%
39.3%
P3
52.8%
42.1%
OT
61.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |