Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.2% vs Novak 43.0% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 86.8%
Defensive zone
Monahan 93.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 92.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 91.9%
91.9%
8.1%
Monahan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Monahan
Novak
Last 6: Monahan 6-0 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
0
Monahan
Novak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,407)
41.8% (1,568)
+9.3%
Power Play
53.6% (2,582)
51.5% (134)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (772)
50.0% (2)
-4.1%
On even strength, Monahan has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Monahan shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Monahan
Novak
Home
52.3% (7,387)
45.1% (831)
Away
50.2% (7,374)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Monahan
Novak
P1
51.0%
43.7%
P2
51.7%
42.8%
P3
51.0%
41.1%
OT
53.5%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.2%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 09:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |