Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 52.2% vs Zegras 41.5% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 57.7%
Defensive zone
Aho 56.7%
Neutral zone
Zegras 56.2%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Aho
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Aho
Zegras
Last 9: Aho 4-5 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
4
Aho
Zegras
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
1
Aho
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (819)
39.4% (510)
+12.2%
Power Play
58.4% (173)
47.1% (34)
+11.3%
On even strength, Aho has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Aho shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Aho
Zegras
Home
53.9% (568)
42.3% (272)
Away
50.7% (491)
37.5% (272)
By Period
Aho
Zegras
P1
55.4%
37.6%
P2
51.2%
41.5%
P3
50.9%
40.8%
OT
28.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.2%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.4%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:52 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 14:08 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 12:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 11:26 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |