Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 51.3% vs Zegras 39.5% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 86.5%
Defensive zone
Aho 94.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 89.9%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 89.1%
89.1%
10.9%
Aho
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
7
(19 meetings)
12
7
Aho
Zegras
Last 10: Aho 8-2 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
3
4
Aho
Zegras
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
7
3
Aho
Zegras
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (6,646)
39.0% (1,703)
+11.2%
Power Play
58.9% (1,310)
38.5% (148)
+20.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (465)
25.0% (8)
+21.5%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Aho shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Aho
Zegras
Home
52.4% (4,325)
40.5% (908)
Away
50.1% (4,096)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Aho
Zegras
P1
51.1%
40.0%
P2
52.1%
38.6%
P3
50.8%
38.2%
OT
48.9%
31.6%
Final 5 min
50.4%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:31 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 08:31 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 05:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 13:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 16:09 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 10:16 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:52 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 14:08 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 12:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 11:26 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |