Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 51.2% vs Zegras 42.6% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 92.5%
Defensive zone
Aho 86.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 87.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 88.4%
88.4%
11.6%
Aho
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Aho
Zegras
Last 6: Aho 5-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
4
1
Aho
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (778)
41.1% (559)
+7.4%
Power Play
63.4% (191)
50.0% (12)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (65)
50.0% (2)
+0.8%
On power play, Aho has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Aho shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Aho
Zegras
Home
51.3% (530)
45.7% (247)
Away
51.4% (504)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Aho
Zegras
P1
50.0%
45.5%
P2
51.3%
36.8%
P3
52.1%
41.1%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 13:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 16:09 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 10:16 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |