Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +17.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.5% vs Zegras 37.0% (+17.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 77.0%
Defensive zone
Aho 89.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 90.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 89.4%
89.4%
10.6%
Aho
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Aho
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (878)
33.0% (264)
+17.5%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
32.1% (56)
+21.4%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
50.0% (2)
-5.7%
On power play, Aho has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Aho shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Aho
Zegras
Home
53.8% (571)
35.3% (173)
Away
46.9% (512)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Aho
Zegras
P1
49.0%
33.0%
P2
51.7%
35.7%
P3
50.3%
29.7%
OT
58.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:31 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |