Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Novak wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 45.6% vs Seguin 54.2% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 54.6%
Defensive zone
Seguin 61.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 51.3%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Novak
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Novak
Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Novak
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (384)
55.0% (713)
-11.2%
Power Play
58.8% (17)
56.7% (104)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
47.2% (53)
+52.8%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Novak is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Novak shoots left. Seguin is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Novak
Seguin
Home
46.5% (202)
56.2% (443)
Away
42.5% (200)
53.2% (427)
By Period
Novak
Seguin
P1
49.2%
54.2%
P2
44.2%
52.9%
P3
40.0%
57.1%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
44.5%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:46 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |