Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Novak wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.0% vs Seguin 53.6% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 89.9%
Defensive zone
Novak 81.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 88.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 83.3%
83.3%
16.7%
Novak
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Novak
Seguin
Last 10: Novak 1-9 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
9
Novak
Seguin
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
2
1
Novak
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (1,568)
53.7% (8,071)
-11.9%
Power Play
51.5% (134)
55.9% (810)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
49.3% (762)
+0.7%
On even strength, Seguin has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Novak shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Home / Away
Novak
Seguin
Home
45.1% (831)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
40.2% (873)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Novak
Seguin
P1
43.7%
52.8%
P2
42.8%
53.3%
P3
41.1%
54.7%
OT
57.1%
54.7%
Final 5 min
40.1%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:30 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 02:03 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 01:38 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 12:11 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 12:03 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:46 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |