Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Dewar 45.1% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.8%
Defensive zone
Dewar 82.0%
Neutral zone
Dewar 60.6%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 71.3%
28.7%
71.3%
Nelson
Dewar
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Nelson
Dewar
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
2
Nelson
Dewar
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
2
Nelson
Dewar
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dewar
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
45.4% (443)
+1.5%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
75.0% (8)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
28.8% (52)
-3.8%
On power play, Dewar has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dewar shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Dewar is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dewar
Home
48.9% (521)
43.3% (238)
Away
45.5% (516)
44.9% (265)
By Period
Nelson
Dewar
P1
45.9%
41.7%
P2
48.0%
46.1%
P3
48.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
45.3%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.3%
Dewar
46.0%▬
46.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:34 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |