Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Dewar 47.1% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.7%
Defensive zone
Dewar 72.1%
Neutral zone
Dewar 56.2%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Nelson
Dewar
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Nelson
Dewar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
1
Nelson
Dewar
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
2
Nelson
Dewar
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dewar
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dewar
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
49.1% (57)
+1.8%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
100.0% (1)
-40.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
32.3% (31)
+11.1%
On power play, Dewar has a +40.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dewar shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Dewar is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (51).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dewar
Home
52.9% (654)
50.0% (34)
Away
48.9% (658)
40.0% (55)
By Period
Nelson
Dewar
P1
48.4%
46.7%
P2
54.3%
30.0%
P3
50.5%
59.3%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
43.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 06:49 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |