Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Dewar 45.7% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Dewar leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.2%
Defensive zone
Dewar 78.8%
Neutral zone
Dewar 63.7%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Nelson
Dewar
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Nelson
Dewar
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Dewar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
3
Nelson
Dewar
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
4
Nelson
Dewar
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
3
Nelson
Dewar
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dewar
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
45.4% (990)
+2.4%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
60.9% (23)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
43.3% (180)
+0.2%
On power play, Dewar has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dewar shoots left. Nelson is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (7,357).
Nelson shoots left. Dewar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (800).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dewar
Home
49.8% (5,696)
43.7% (575)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
46.9% (618)
By Period
Nelson
Dewar
P1
48.6%
43.5%
P2
48.4%
48.1%
P3
47.4%
44.3%
OT
46.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Dewar
46.0%▬
46.5%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:34 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |