Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Dewar 45.5% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Dewar leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Dewar 63.0%
Defensive zone
Dewar 88.3%
Neutral zone
Dewar 73.4%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
Nelson
Dewar
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
13
(18 meetings)
5
13
Nelson
Dewar
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Dewar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
4
Nelson
Dewar
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
6
Nelson
Dewar
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Dewar
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dewar
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
45.4% (1,037)
+2.5%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
60.9% (23)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
41.7% (199)
+2.1%
On power play, Dewar has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dewar shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Dewar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dewar
Home
50.1% (5,878)
43.8% (603)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
46.3% (656)
By Period
Nelson
Dewar
P1
48.7%
43.7%
P2
48.6%
46.7%
P3
47.7%
45.0%
OT
45.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 06:49 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:34 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |