Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Dewar 46.0% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 90.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 75.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Nelson
Dewar
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Dewar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Dewar
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
1
Nelson
Dewar
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dewar
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dewar
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
40.2% (92)
+11.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
100.0% (1)
-41.3%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
48.4% (31)
+3.5%
On power play, Dewar has a +41.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dewar shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Dewar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (97).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dewar
Home
52.5% (590)
41.0% (78)
Away
51.7% (619)
45.7% (46)
By Period
Nelson
Dewar
P1
50.5%
38.9%
P2
54.4%
53.3%
P3
51.4%
34.9%
Final 5 min
57.3%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Dewar
46.0%▬
46.5%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |