Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs Stenlund 54.2% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 89.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 70.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Nelson
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Nelson
Stenlund
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
2
Nelson
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
8
Nelson
Stenlund
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
56.2% (650)
-5.4%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
53.2% (47)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (204)
51.6% (312)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Nelson is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (453).
Nelson shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stenlund
Home
52.6% (639)
56.9% (483)
Away
48.9% (658)
52.5% (526)
By Period
Nelson
Stenlund
P1
48.3%
54.2%
P2
54.0%
53.2%
P3
50.4%
56.9%
OT
41.2%
42.1%
Final 5 min
51.7%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 18:35 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:20 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 07:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |