Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Stenlund 53.0% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.5%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 71.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Nelson
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Stenlund
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
3
Nelson
Stenlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
55.0% (500)
-5.0%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
50.0% (40)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
50.6% (243)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Nelson is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Nelson shoots left. Stenlund is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (511).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stenlund
Home
50.4% (472)
55.5% (346)
Away
48.6% (477)
51.7% (437)
By Period
Nelson
Stenlund
P1
47.2%
54.4%
P2
53.4%
51.7%
P3
47.8%
54.8%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.6%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Stenlund
48.0%▼
53.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |