Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Stenlund 53.6% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 75.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 65.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Nelson
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
11
(20 meetings)
9
11
Nelson
Stenlund
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
Stenlund
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
7
Nelson
Stenlund
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Stenlund
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
55.1% (2,588)
-7.3%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
51.4% (109)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
50.1% (855)
-6.6%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Stenlund is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,669).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stenlund
Home
49.8% (5,696)
53.8% (1,736)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
53.7% (1,816)
By Period
Nelson
Stenlund
P1
48.6%
56.3%
P2
48.4%
53.0%
P3
47.4%
52.3%
OT
46.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Stenlund
48.0%▼
53.5%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 15:19 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 16:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:10 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 03:53 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 3 | 01:42 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |