Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Stenlund 52.7% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.0%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 84.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Nelson
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Stenlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Nelson
Stenlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
58.2% (359)
-11.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
47.1% (17)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
42.0% (150)
-17.0%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Stenlund is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stenlund
Home
48.9% (521)
53.6% (261)
Away
45.5% (516)
52.8% (265)
By Period
Nelson
Stenlund
P1
45.9%
55.4%
P2
48.0%
51.5%
P3
48.0%
52.9%
Final 5 min
45.3%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.3%
Stenlund
48.0%▼
53.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 03:53 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 3 | 01:42 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |